What is a trend and how does it differ from an indicators or signal?
Simply stated: A trend is a long-term theoretical diagnosis determined
by a series of empirical developments described as indicators.
A social indicator corresponds to a single statistical short-term
change in a specific category of analysis -- such as divorce statistics
or college grads. A signal, the earliest stage in the apprehension
process of identifying trends, might not be statistically quantifiable.
A signal may be based on direct observation and intuition about events
in the socio-cultural landscape. Provisional asumptions are often
made about possible outcomes of signals and indicators. In high-impact
trend forecasting, this early process leads to scenario planning.
Trends Are Long in Duration
In the world of statistics, a "trend" should represent a
statistically verifiable direction over an extended period of time,
not inferred from two data points. For example, a year-to-year decrease
in the teen pregnancy rate doesn’t represent a "trend".
In the world of pure research, trends represent about a 20-year pattern
of directional, measureable change. Trendforecaster Faith Popcorn
says that a change sequence should have a ten-year life to be considered
a trend, meaning that it's worth significant dollar investment and
infrastructure change.
In this case, Faith's trend could be over before statisticians agree
that it was a trend in the first place.
Trendmeisters Can't Agree on the Big Trends, Small Trends, Fads
and Artistic Ideosyncrasy
The fashion/media industries overuse the word "trend", without
ever agreeing on its meaning.
Infomat, calling itself "the largest fashion industry search
engine" states that a trend is: "simply that type of clothing
that people are accepting as the current style of dress in any given
area of the world. Some of the biggest trends so far in the 21st century
have been Army fatigue prints, Fur and alligator skin and Denim that
is worn, sprayed splattered and graffiti drenched."
This definition of "trend" fits better with the official
statistical definition.
Fashion Trend Generation
I would be fired if I told a client that" worn denim" is
a trend. They know this already. Retailers and designers want to know
about the next fashion must-have, that kernel of clothing or accessory
innovation not seen in large numbers on American streets.
Today’s fashion trends are initiated by trend-setters and individualists
who are by nature "cool". Sometimes the individualist is
anti-trendy by nature and moves onto the next "new look"
at that moment when coolhunters broadcast the news of the trend into
the larger population. These individualists often live outside of
the U.S. where free thinking and eccentricity is celebrated, rather
than a becoming a cause for depression.
American hiphop and rap brought us a new type of style individualist
who knows he/she is cool. This self-aware group is always onto the
next new thing and grooves on its social impact. Like undercover cops,
today’s coolhunters try to "hang out" with key influential
trend-starters, learning to speak their language. All parties involved
are hip to what's happening, and often these trend-starters are put
on corporate payrolls.
This intermingling of innovators and coolhunters isn't always positive.
Having gone mainstream and joining up with the establishment, hiphop
culture is going through its own creative crisis today.
Fashion trend generation has turned upside down in the last decade.
Once the primary source of trends, high-end designers and department
stores no longer drive trends. Influential, yes, in the case of designers.
More innovation comes from "the street" and small boutiques,
where a stylist pulls together the next "new look."
Trend Lifecycles
Every fashion item has a trend or fad life cycle. Knowing where a
design look is placed in the cycle is critical to selling it successfully.
In today’s world, you snooze – you lose. This is because
Target’s Fashion Office is on the streets of St. Tropez right
along with the Bloomingdale’s Fashion Office. Target is at the
clubs and buying photos from fashion insiders, right along with DKNY.
Being able to distinguish between trends and fads is another important
skill in designing successful product. If the trend is very popular,
it will morph in successive variations of the original idea. Most
important, today's brand managers must decide whether the look fits
the brand identity and positioning – and customer’s needs
– most importantly.
Quantifying the Issue: High Impact Trends
The challenge in evaluating consumer research and new research information
is to create context around statistical information. If you’re
Wal-mart and you read that sales of larger, expensive homes has accelerated
after 911, you could see this information as a market opportunity
for expanding sales with new, more upscale product for this customer.
If another simultaneous indicator is that significantly greater numbers
of lower-income folks are living in one household than ever before,
reversing a 50-year trend, you might leave the larger homes trend
to California Closets, while you focus on creating multi-use furniture
for multi-use spaces. The immediate impact of the second indicator
on Wal-mart is probably more significant than the first.
One of the toughest challenges to presenting indicator/trend information
is placing it on a scale of real world impact. We’re all living
in an Infoglut Soundbite world. Not only do we professionals lack
time to process the information that interests us, we rarely consider
it in a larger context. How important is one trend compared to another?
Does this trend impact American society at large or a comparatively
small group of people?
Seven 
Trends
You already know that navigating the 21st century consumption highway
is a challenge. Across America, women of every age are taking another
look at life in 911 America. Women continue to fuel the American economy,
making between 70 and 80 percent of all purchase decisions for American
households. Clearly, what women think, really matters.
At Leading Indicators, we’ve identified seven core long-term
trends that have high impact on women’s lives and the products
they buy. These trends are top of mind in evaluating research statistics
and new culture signals:
Goodbye Mayberry explores the dramatic functional, as well
as psychological and emotional changes occurring in and around the
American family, identified as the primary anchor in Amrican life.
Truth Serum examines the growing and fundamental shift in spoken
and subliminal dialogue between Amrican women and the institutions
that surround them - from the workplace to brands to religion.
Design Democracy tracks new ideas in the well-established expectation
of good design for every consumer at affordable prices.
What's Sexy Now reports on key aspects of female sexuality
in American culture.
Disney Effect tracks news of digital-age magic on consciousness,
reality perception and the desire for keenly-felt experience.
The Big O follows every utterance of Oprah Winfrey. We stay
tuned to each episode of The Opray Show, O magazine, and Oprah regulars
like Dr. Phil, for news on where America's most famous change agent
is taking her audience.
Purification surveys the bottom-line new thinking and action
plans created by women themselves, as they connect with the other
six
trends, and unique external events like Sept. 11 and the new War on
Terrorism.
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